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At first, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious ramifications" last August if Putin continued hindering ceasefire talks, he ultimately enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly impacted Putin's ability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has clearly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would in practice benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan effectively weaken that same autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, the former president seems to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will please the leader. However, Putin's war is not only about occupying a charred area of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear desire to eliminate it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's growing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in place the currently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would require Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in over a decade of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a essential barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, giving Putin a clear path to the capital should he eventually decide to restart the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make additional fighting easier for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative sets no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "All extremist doctrine and actions must be rejected and prohibited." As if to emphasize this point, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing votes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of seized areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should we believe Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "immediate coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics range from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "serious, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not