🔗 Share this article From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro. A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.” These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”
A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.” These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”